Verified local facts
The three-shock wind tunnel changes one evidenced household input at a time and records breach date, recovery path and stop action without forecasting likelihood.
Evidence reviewed
Help a Mauritius household stress-test an income shock using attributable evidence and a stop condition.
Decision checklist
The three-shock wind tunnel changes one evidenced household input at a time and records breach date, recovery path and stop action without forecasting likelihood; review marker 108 applies this device only to “stress-test an income shock Mauritius” and the evidence boundaries named on this page.
Freeze the ordinary flight plan
Start with the accepted household basin and one complete repayment schedule. Record inflow dates, protected essentials, existing obligations, buffer and quotation version. Do not alter amount, term or spending merely to improve a later result. The frozen plan is the control against which every tunnel run is measured. If the baseline already breaches the stop line, no shock test can rescue it; return to project design first.
Choose shocks from real exposure
Review income history and essential-cost records. Select a late inflow, a reduction in a variable resource and one unavoidable cost relevant to this household. State each change clearly without attaching a probability or claiming it will happen. Do not combine all fears into a dramatic collapse. One-variable runs make the source of pressure visible and allow a specific response to be tested.
Run the delay tunnel
Move one expected inflow to a later evidenced or deliberately conservative date while leaving its amount unchanged. Recalculate daily or weekly cash position, identify the first unpaid essential and measure recovery after the inflow arrives. Test only realistic actions already available, such as using an existing buffer or rescheduling a discretionary purchase. New borrowing is not counted as automatic rescue.
Run the reduction tunnel
Reduce a variable inflow by a household-chosen amount grounded in prior variation, not a market prediction. Preserve the original due dates. Record which spending category first becomes exposed and whether the lower resource persists. A plan that works only after removing protected essentials fails. If the household can reduce the project before signing, model a new quotation rather than editing repayments inside the tunnel.
Run the essential-cost tunnel
Introduce one necessary cost with its likely timing based on household experience or a current quote. Do not label an invented amount as a Mauritius average. Keep the cost separate from discretionary stress. Observe whether the buffer absorbs it and how long recovery takes. The tunnel may reveal that the nominal surplus is too concentrated or that a payment date creates avoidable conflict requiring clarification before commitment.
Test recovery actions
For each breach, name an action, owner, deadline and evidence: pause discretionary spending, use an existing emergency reserve, reduce the financed job before signing, or contact the authenticated provider early after commitment. Do not assume refinancing, payment holidays or complaint outcomes. Bank of Mauritius complaint material supports procedure context only. An unconfirmed concession cannot be entered as cash-flow relief.
Grade resilience without a universal score
Classify each run as contained within buffer, recovered before essentials fail, or unacceptable. Explain the household rule behind the grade. Do not create a national threshold or combine results into a credit score. The purpose is to expose where the plan depends on perfect timing. A single unacceptable run may justify reduction or refusal even when ordinary arithmetic looks comfortable. Record the precise breach date and protected expense so the grade can be challenged and reproduced.
Keep assessment outside the tunnel
Archive the frozen plan, three changes, breach points, recovery actions and decision. An institution may assess risk differently and may not approve the quoted structure; that does not invalidate the household test. Conversely, acceptance does not alter the tunnel outcome. Any new offered amount, term or schedule creates a new flight plan and three fresh runs. The household retains the choice to stop at every stage. Create a recovery runway for every failed run. Start at the breach date and list only actions already within household control: a confirmed reserve, deferrable non-essential purchase, reduced project before signing or authenticated early discussion after signing. Give each action a lead time and the evidence that it is actually available. Do not place an unconfirmed provider concession, family gift or new credit on the runway. Then rerun the shock with the action activated at its realistic date. A response that arrives after an essential fails does not count as recovery. Compare the three runways to find dependencies: if all rely on the same small reserve, they are not independent protections. Label that concentration. A second reviewer receives only the frozen plan, shock definitions and runway evidence and must reproduce breach and recovery dates. Any disagreement returns to timing, not a rounded monthly average. The final tunnel log states which inputs were household facts, which were deliberate stress choices and which outcomes remain unknown. It never publishes the chosen shock as a prediction about Mauritian income. If a provider later offers a different schedule, archive the previous tunnel and repeat all three runs. Approval is therefore a trigger for fresh analysis, not a pass through an old test.